EUAN SINCLAIR VOLATILITY TRADING PDF

But there are patterns within the noise that can be measured and exploited. No one knows this better than author Euan Sinclair, a highly successful options trader with a doctorate in quantum chaos. Drawing upon his fifteen years as a professional trader, Sinclair provides a fully fleshed-out approach to trading that relies as much on the all-important "human element" and the psychological and emotional biases that drive trading decisions, as it does on quantitative analysis. Ultimately, says Sinclair, trading is about having a coherent trading philosophy and developing a rigorous system.

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With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation.

In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Although academics have continued to work on forecasting volatility, I think the improvements from the perspective of an option trader are now marginal.

This would probably not be what I would choose to focus on now. So although I have slightly expanded the section on volatility forecasting, I think it is now more important than ever to look for situations where the odds are in our favor whether we can accurately measure and forecast volatility.

To this end, I have added chapters on stylized facts of markets and the variance premium. I have also expanded the chapter on psychology. The usefulness of behavioral psychology to traders is still a matter of debate. Traders themselves seem to be greatly polarized, either being true believers or completely dismissive. I make no apologies for being a believer.

I know that studying this has helped me. This book is about trading volatility.

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Interview with Dr Euan Sinclair, author of ‘Volatility Trading’

With an accessible, straightforward approach. He guides traders through the basics of option pricing, volatility measurement, hedging, money management, and trade evaluation. In addition, Sinclair explains the often-overlooked psychological aspects of trading, revealing both how behavioral psychology can create market conditions traders can take advantage of-and how it can lead them astray. Psychological biases, he asserts, are probably the drivers behind most sources of edge available to a volatility trader. Although academics have continued to work on forecasting volatility, I think the improvements from the perspective of an option trader are now marginal.

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Do you see that changing significantly before year end? Obviously there is always the potential for a major terrorist attack or a natural disaster to cause volatility to spike but other than that volatility seems to be at a level where prediction is hard. When volatility is very high it is a good bet it will revert to its mean and generally fairly quickly but it is currently almost exactly at its median value. It seems low but that is really a matter of perception as it has decreased fairly steadily lately. What option strategies are you pursuing and researching right now? There are numerous studies of the anomalies displayed by stock prices. Things like calendar effects, momentum around earnings releases, the effects of weather or lunar cycles etc.

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